Thursday, August 14, 2008

Obama vs McCain Projection

There's a fascinating website I learned about recently. It's called fivethirtyeight (which is the total number of electors in the electoral college). The mission of the site is "to accumulate and analyze polling and political data in a way that is informed, accurate and attractive. Most narrowly, to give you the best possible objective assessment of the likely outcome of upcoming elections." The guy who runs the site was recently on CNN and MSNBC. The amount of numbers he crunches is mind-blowing. The below pic reflects what 538 presently believes the outcome will be in each state on November 4:



The blue states go to Obama, the red to McCain (the dark blue and dark red states are more likely to go to that candidate than the light colored versions of each). Under this scenario, the electoral totals would end up being Obama: 298.2 and McCain: 239.8 (270 are needed to win).

11 comments:

Rocketstar said...

I hope it ends up being correct!

Thomas said...

I would also be very happy if those numbers hold up, Rocket.

BTW, I heard a rumor that Obama's camp is thinking of leaking a new nickname for him to the press: Barrackuda.

disestablishingpuritanism said...

I second that. These polls are mind boggling to say the least. Last I saw, Obama had a four to five point lead in Virginia and Nevada is also expected to gain ground for Democrats. Unfortunately, I'm not very optimistic about his chances in my state, Georgia, but he should do well in my city, Atlanta, and Macon. It should be close.

Thomas said...

Dis, you are definitely living in a red state, no question. But it's good to know you'll be one of thousands of Atlantans voting for Barry in less than 3 months. *raises right arm and closes fist*

silverneurotic said...

Although I'm living in a blue state, I feel as though I am definitely living in a red one. It feels as though I am surrounded by Republicans-thus, all my election information is skewed through them and of Fox.

It'll be VERY interesting if Obama wins, being I'm his lone supporter in this household it'll be strange indeed.

Thomas said...

Surrounded by Republicans, yikes! As Bill Clinton once said, "I fehl your pain".

If O does win on election night, then just after the race has been called, you should say to your entire family, "In your face!" (and it wouldn't hurt to raise your arm and close your hand into a fist signifying Black Power for extra emphasis). :P

Timothy Smith said...

Obama should win, he is not stupid and knows what he needs to do. Avoid debate as much as possible and meld his policy to McCains over time.

He is doing exactly that.

I am a firm independent but I am happy this cycle as both candidates are far better choices then we have had in the past.

I am not in a red or blue state (Arizona) but since McCain is from here we should go "red" come election time.

Thomas said...

Tim, you're right about both candidates being vast improvements over recent years. Obama is worlds ahead of Kerry and McCain seems to be much more willing to compromise than Bush was.

If McCain does get in, I wouldn't have too big a problem with it, especially if he picks a worthy VP.

Brian said...

Honestly, the Democrats ought to be doing much better here. I was an Obama supporter, but I realize that Clinton would have got the uneducated/racist vote that would have made this an easy win.

The problem is that Obama is making the same mistakes Kerry made in 2004. For one, he's moving towards the center in order to get more votes. The problem with that philosophy is that at the same time, he's presenting himself as a watered-down Republican. When Kerry ran in 2004, he hardly disagreed with Bush on anything. The voters see this and ask why vote for a watered-down Republican when they can vote for the real thing?

Spirophita said...

The problem with the polling is that it doesn't represent those people who do not have home phone lines--that's most people these days under the age of 25--a very important factor in voting. So we'll see...

I think Colorado could turn, and I've heard reports that even North Dakota could turn to Obama.

Thomas said...

Very good points, Brian. I don't recall much difference between Bush and Kerry in '4, either. I get some comfort from the high number of new Democrats coming on board this year as well as the number of registered Republicans going down.

Spiro, I was going to bring up that very thing. Phone polls would, by definition, not be properly representing the kids. If they come out in force this fall (like they did in Wisconsin this spring), Obama will be the winner. I also agree with you on a number of states potentially turning from red to blue. That would be a sight for sore eyes. I love blue!